Acting Oscar Nominees:
(% Certainty of Win)
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett (99%)
in her favor: female roles in Woody Allen films are always Oscar-caliber and Blanchett shines as a narcissistic socialite. Also, she's won every other award this season. It's in the bag...
not in her favor: she's won before (2005's Best Supporting Actress for "The Aviator") and it's very hard to score a second win
Amy Adams (75%)
in her favor: this is her fifth time up-to-bat for a little golden guy. She's turning into a regular Glenn Close. The Academy has shown that it can finally reward a multiple nominee (Kate Winslet won her first in 2009 after five previous nominations)
not in her favor: although her performance in "American Hustle" was great, the film showcased an excellent ensemble and an outstanding performance by Jennifer Lawrence
Sandra Bullock (40%)
in her favor: she was on screen alone, and therefore carried most of the film and she was fantastic
not in her favor: she's won before (2010's Best Actress for "The Blind Side") and she's also still one of America's sweethearts
Meryl Streep (25%)
in her favor: ummmm... duh... it's Meryl. What would the Oscars be without her yearly nominations?
not in her favor: she has a whopping three Oscars already and the Academy does like to spread the wealth around
Judi Dench (5%)
in her favor: her character is, perhaps, the most beloved because it is based on a real person, who overcame a tremendous loss
not in her favor: she already has one (1999's Best Supporting Actress for "Shakespeare in Love") and she isn't as well known as the other nominees
Best Actor
Matthew McConaughey (95%)
in his favor: this is truly his breakthrough role, amongst a sea of silly credits. McConaughey is stellar and well-deserving of the award. He's won most of the big awards of the season, so he should take home the gold
not in his favor: he is known as that odd-ball, romantic comedy-making, Southern actor and it's hard to break stereotypes in voter's minds
Chiwetel Ejoifor (55%)
in his favor: he's one of the best actors of his generation and his performance is flawless. Also, the character he plays is absolutely inspiring
not in his favor: he's new to the big leagues of Hollywood
Leonardo DiCaprio (50%)
in his favor: this is the best performance (besides his 1994 Best Supporting Actor nominated role in "What's Eating Gilbert Grape"). He's tremendous and is long-overdue for the win
not in his favor: his character was over-the-top and arrogant and not well liked, so that may have a role in DiCaprio's impending loss. Also, Leo is one of the biggest stars in Hollywood... which usually doesn't fair well for Oscar chances
Christian Bale (40%)
in his favor: he gained weight and, as usual, gives a terrific performance
not in his favor: like Amy Adams, he is over-shadowed by the ensemble and by the beloved Jennifer Lawrence
Bruce Dern (10%)
in his favor: he's a veteran actor and well-respected by Hollywood insiders. He does a great job in this role
not in his favor: he's not well-known in mainstream Hollywood and his film was not a box office smash
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence (85%)
in her favor: she is adored by Hollywood and fans alike and her performance was sharp and witty
not in her favor: she won Best Actress last year for "Silver Linings Playbook" and only three actors have won consecutive Oscars
Lupita Nyong'o (84%)
in her favor: she won the SAG (biggest Oscar indicator), Critics Choice, and Spirit awards and she is the most deserving of this year's win
not in her favor: she's very new to Hollywood and hasn't made a huge mark for herself yet
Julia Roberts (40%)
in her favor: she's one of America's favorite actors and she plays a very different kind of role than we are used to
not in her favor: she hasn't garnered much momentum this awards season. It's almost easy to forget she's nominated
Sally Hawkins (25%)
in her favor: she's fantastic, like always, and female characters in Woody Allen films are always the best
not in her favor: she's not well known and is very much over-shadowed by Cate Blanchett's performance
June Squibb (5%)
in her favor: she's cute and funny and very likable
not in her favor: no one has ever heard of her and most have never heard of "Nebraska"
Best Supporting Actor
Jared Leto (97%)
in his favor: he's absolutely the most deserving of this award, this season. His performance was awe-inspiring. Also, he's won almost every major award so far
not in his favor: he's a rocker and a bit of a rebel, so older voters might not take to him
Barkhad Abdi (45%)
in his favor: he's completely terrifying as a pirate and it doesn't hurt that he is backed by his costar, Tom Hanks
not in his favor: he's very new to the scene and he also doesn't give the best speech (see his BAFTA acceptance)
Michael Fassbender (40%)
in his favor: he's generated some steam in Hollywood, since his breakout role in 2011's "Shame"
not in his favor: he's over-shadowed by Chiwetel and Lupita
Bradley Cooper (35%)
in his favor: he's very popular amongst the public and that curly 'do was amazing
not in his favor: it's easy to forget that he is nominated
Jonah Hill (5%)
in his favor: his best performance to date and he manages to keep DiCaprio from outshining him
not in his favor: he is considered the "surprise nomination" of the season, considering he didn't get any other major nominations
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