Our Oscar Breakdown (2011 films)

Acting Oscar Nominees:

(% probability)

Best Actor

Jean Dujardin (90%)

in his favor: he took home the SAG (which is the biggest indicator for the Oscar's acting awards) and the film is a runaway hit, almost certain to take home the Best Picture Oscar... plus he's so darn cute

not in his favor: he's foreign and doesn't speak English very well, which can affect how voters relate to him

George Clooney (75%)

in his favor: he's a Hollywood industry favorite, with many famous fans

not in his favor: he already has an Oscar, so folks might be willing to let this one slide for the sake of some new blood

Brad Pitt (40%)

in his favor: this is the best performance he's ever given and everyone loves a good under-dog story

not in his favor: he has the stigma of a paparazzi-filled life, so people might think he has had enough press. Also he gave the weakest performance out of the nominees

Gary Oldman (30%)

in his favor: he's long deserved an Oscar nomination and the Academy might want to show him how much his work is revered

not in his favor: "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" has not been seen by many people

Demian Bichir (25%)

in his favor: his performance is arguably the sweetest and most heart-wrenching of the nominees

not in his favor: he's very unknown in the community and let's face it, the Oscars are part popularity contest

Best Actress

Viola Davis (80%)

in her favor: she snagged the SAG and she gave a beautiful, eloquent speech (which even managed to make Jolie cry). Hell, even Meryl thinks she should win

not in her favor: black actresses who've won Best Actress in Academy history: a grand total of... 1

another in her favor: she would be the 2nd black actress in history to win Best Actress

Meryl Streep (80%)

in her favor: she has long eluded that well-deserved 3rd Oscar and is an industry favorite

not in her favor: SHE ALREADY HAS 2 OSCARS!!! She also gets nominated on an average once every 3 years, so she has plenty more opportunities to snag another golden man

Michelle Williams (55%)

in her favor: she is adorably sweet in her acceptance speeches (especially when she mentions the daughter she shares with late actor Heath Ledger) and she humanized a screen icon

not in her favor: she's young and will probably have many more chances to win. Also, the stigma of the real Monroe (you know, the stuff about her not being a good actress) may rub off on Williams

Glenn Close (30%)

in her favor: this is her 6th nomination, without a win... which ties her with Deborah Kerr and Thelma Ritter for the most nominations for an actress with NO WIN. It's about time to end that losing streak

not in her favor: she is a television goddess with several Emmy, Golden Globe, and SAG wins... so it is easy to forget that she has never won for films

Rooney Mara (10%)

in her favor: she basically came out of nowhere to give a better performance than the original Lisbeth and everyone loves a Cinderella-like rise to fame

not in her favor: nudity is not something the Academy loves and also, she's a bit of a goth odd-ball

Best Supporting Actor

Christopher Plummer (100%)

in his favor: he's a Hollywood veteran, who has long eluded an Oscar. Also, Hollywood is partial to a brave homosexual character (Hanks in "Philadelphia", Hoffman in "Capote", and Penn in "Milk"). Plus he's won every major award to date. It's pretty much in the bag

not in his favor: the only thing not in his favor is that there's always room for a surprise

Kenneth Branagh (75%)

in his favor: he's playing an acting icon (Sir Laurence Olivier) and has never won an Oscar in his amazing career

not in his favor: Plummer blows him away

Max Von Sydow (50%)

in his favor: like Plummer, he's a veteran (he's been acting since 1949) and well-deserving of a statue for his long and amazing career. He should get a lifetime achievement Oscar, but sometimes voters mistakenly throw a regular one into the mix

not in his favor: Plummer blows him away

Nick Nolte (25%)

in his favor: this represents a huge comeback for the actor, who has long been in the press for the crazy antics in his private life

not in his favor: he's long been an unpredictable and troublesome actor and personal lives do get in the way. Also... Plummer blows him away

Jonah Hill (10%)

in his favor: he has shown the industry that he is a versatile actor. Also, he was absolutely terrific in this role

not in his favor: he's mostly known as a comedy actor and voters might find it hard to separate his 'Peter Brand' from his 'Seth' (in "Superbad"). Also... Plummer blows him away

Best Supporting Actress

Octavia Spencer (100%)

in her favor: she's won every other major award. Also, voters are rooting for a character that exacts revenge of a hateful and racist antagonist

not in her favor: it's pretty much in the bag, but perhaps voters will realize that, although Spencer was good, she wasn't the best

Benerice Bejo (50%)

in her favor: she's riding "The Artist" train and might very well bring home an Oscar

not in her favor: she's not well-known and she was very much overshadowed by her costar, Jean Dujardin

Jessica Chastain (40%)

in her favor: she delivered the best performance in "The Help" (besides a snubbed Bryce Dallas Howard). It was sensitive, sweet, heartfelt, and tragic. We all cried for naive 'Celia'

not in her favor: people are more likely to think of Spencer when it comes to "The Help"

Janet McTeer (25%)

in her favor: arguably the best performance out of the five. She played a woman pretending to be a man

not in her favor: She deserves this honor more than anyone else in this category, but it was a little-known film and most voters probably didn't see it

Melissa McCarthy (10%)

in her favor: she was hilarious to the max, but also managed to show a softer side to nutty 'Megan'

not in her favor: comedic performances hardly ever win. Also, she was good, but Kristen Wiig actually ruled that film.